Property pundits have outlined their expectations for the Sunshine Coast in 2026, with one suburb earmarked to boom.
Experts predict home values in the region will continue to climb but at a significantly slower rate.
Ray White analyst Atom Go Tiam said the Sunshine Coast property market had experienced years of rapid price gain that started during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Home prices soared more than 50 per cent from 2020 to 2022, with the median house value rising from $568,000 to $855,000.
“The Sunshine Coast was among the most popular destinations during this period for several compelling reasons,” he said.
Want more free local news? Follow Sunshine Coast News on Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram, and sign up for our FREE daily news email.
“It offered premium coastal amenity but at a significant discount (to capital cities). This created what we might call ‘Goldilocks positioning’ — expensive enough to feel premium and aspirational, yet substantially cheaper than Sydney or Melbourne.
“Its proximity to Brisbane and established infrastructure made it viable for permanent relocation rather than just a holiday destination.”
But home prices have increased at a slower rate since (32 per cent from 2023 to 2025).
“There has been a clear deceleration from the pandemic surge, yet growth has still outpaced the national average,” Mr Tiam said.
“However, at $1.23 million (the current local median), the market is now pricing out many of the buyers who originally drove its popularity.
“The affordability advantage that defined its pandemic appeal has largely disappeared, making it comparable to many Sydney and Melbourne suburbs.”
Mr Tiam said the price rise should slow down even more this year.
“I’d expect modest single digit to low double-digit growth (5 to 12 per cent),” he said.
“The Sunshine Coast has exhausted its primary value proposition, which is affordable coastal lifestyle.
“With prices now at $1.23 million, the migration drivers that fuelled explosive pandemic growth have weakened. We’re also seeing buyer attention shift toward sub-$700,000 regions that combine both lifestyle appeal and genuine economic foundations.”
REA Group Senior Economist Anne Flaherty said home prices on the Sunshine Coast increased by almost 10 per cent in 2025 — above the national growth rate of almost 9 per cent but below the regional Queensland growth rate of almost 12.5 per cent.
She said the increase was largely driven by “population growth and tight housing conditions” but affordability pressures had “shifted buyer demand”.
“Prices are likely to continue rising in 2026 but at a more moderate pace, underpinned by migration, the Sunshine Coast’s lifestyle appeal and housing shortages.
“Affordability constraints and relatively high interest rates could temper the rate of growth.”
A southern Sunshine Coast suburb was highlighted as one to watch in 2026.
Baringa was included in the annual realestate.com.au Hot 100 list, which identified 100 suburbs around Australia with the best real estate prospects this year.
“Baringa is a suburb that appeals to a broad range of buyers, from young families to retirees,” Ms Flaherty said.
“It offers good amenity and lifestyle appeal, including schools and parks, and is just a short drive from the coast.
“It is also possible to purchase a house at a relatively more affordable price point compared to many nearby Sunshine Coast suburbs.”
Suburbs were nominated based on family appeal, gentrification activity, infrastructure investment, the level of amenity and affordability.
Baringa is home to about 4600 people and its main demographic is 30 to 34-year-olds. Its median house price is $850,000.
But mid-year data revealed that homes in the Sunshine Coast federal electorate of Fisher and Fairfax were among the least affordable in the country.
