The long-range weather forecast for the Sunshine Coast has been released, and locals could be in for something a bit different.
The Bureau of Meteorology expects less rain and higher temperatures than usual for winter, including a strong chance of ‘unusually warm’ conditions.
The region is likely to receive a lower rainfall total than the mean of 240mm, and higher daily temperatures than the mean minimum (about 10.3 degrees Celsius) and mean maximum (about 21.6 degrees Celsius).
There is also a 70 to 80 per cent of ‘unusually warm’ weather, with temperatures reaching the top decile, representing the warmest 20 per cent of winters on record.
“There’s a high chance of temperatures being higher than normal from June to August,” BOM senior climatologist Felicity Gamble said.
“That lines up with the dryer outlook. There’s less rainfall and less cloud therefore we get those warmer temperatures.
It was a warmer than usual winter in 2025 and an ‘unusually warm’ winter in 2024.
Ms Gamble said there were several factors contributing to the likely drier and warmer conditions.
She said there was “certainly an element” of climate change “trending into the forecasts”.
“We are expecting an El Nino to form sometime during winter. We’re seeing precursors already in the tropical Pacific and we’re expecting to shift into El Nino thresholds sometime in the next couple of months.
“(But) we have a few different drivers, like the Indian Ocean Dipole, a driver to our north, and the Southern Annual Mode that can play a role in our seasonal patterns as well.
“So, while we have an El Nino develop, and that tends to have a drying influence on much of Australia during winter and spring, it depends on how it reacts with the other drivers that can influence rainfall.”
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The forecast comes off the back an interesting autumn.
“We’ve had some unseasonal rainfall in the last few weeks in May, but it was quite a dry April, so it’s been a mixed story,” Ms Gamble said.
There were above to above average rainfall figures and warmer than average temperatures generally, during the past three months.
Maroochydore had 330mm in March, 106mm in April and 186mm in May for a combined 622mm, which is above the mean of 498mm. The mean maximum temperature was about 26.2 degrees Celsius, above the long term mean of about 25.9.
